The threat of COVID-19 has not left South Africa, and it’ll be with us for some time to come. Government officials have bemoaned the ‘complacency’ displayed by some members of the public during Level 1 of lockdown, and the latest data released by Wits University shows that the chances of a second wave hitting this country are very real indeed.
On Sunday, the Health Department confirmed that 2 270 cases were registered over the most recent 24-hour period. For the first time in months, daily case numbers breached the 3 000-mark on Saturday. The numbers are almost certainly going in the wrong direction, as the death toll from coronavirus now stands at 20 903.
Cabinet’s scientific advisors are not too worried by these trends. Professor Salim Abdool Karim says that South Africa is not experiencing a second wave at the moment, and national data is being driven by ‘local super-spreader events’.
However, that does not mean the rest of us are off the hook. New research has assessed the probability of a second wave hitting each of South Africa’s nine provinces. Now, here comes the scientific part – there’s an index used to calculate risk levels:
“This index quantifies the deviation of the data from the hypothesis of a single wave. It gives a measure of the risk for a second wave. Where the Risk Index is greater than 10, the risk for a second wave becomes statistically compelling. The 7.5 and 10 risk indexes correspond to medium and high risk, respectively.”